Russia's Macro Data Starts To Confirm The Severity Of The Downturn

The Ruble Devaluation Continues

The ruble fell the most in nine years against the euro this week after the central bank widened its trading band twice and allowed the currency to fall by a further 3.8 percent, following last week's 1 percent devaluation. The currency retreated to a maximum of 5.8 percent over the week, although it recovered somewhat and was up 0.1 percent again today (Friday) over yesterday, trading at 39.1772 per euro at midday in Moscow. The currency has now fallen 16 percent against the dollar since the start of August, and added another 1.3 percent to its losses today, hitting 27.8412 per dollar and falling 1.1 percent (to 33.1020) against the currency basket which is targeted. The ruble thus lost 3.9 percent to the basket this week, in the process experiencing its sixth weekly drop.


Foreign Exchange Reserves Continue To Decline


Russia’s currency reserves fell $1.6 billion to $435.4 billion during the week to 12 December. When compared with the drop of $17.9 billion the week before you could reach the conclusion that the rate of outflow was steadying up, but this does not seem to be the case, since the size of the drop is largely a by-product of the valuation effect produced by the change in the USD-Euro cross, since we need to remember that euro, which constitutes around 44 percent of the reserves, was up 5.1 percent against the dollar during the week. The pound also gained 1.8 percent against the dollar. Hence the dollar value of the euro and pound sterling holdings (about another ten percent of the basket) were up. Vladimir Osakovsky, an economist in Moscow at UniCredit has done some calculations, and he estimates that Russia's central bank probably sold about $12.5 billion in foreign currency last week. Chris Weafer, chief strategist at Moscow bank UralSib, comes up with a similar estimate, and suggests the bank probably sold about $11.5 billion to counter the ruble’s slide, given that the euro component of the reserves increased in value by about $10 billion. (Actually, anyone interested in the somewhat ironic dimension of having so much analysis of Russia's crisis from economists at Unicredit Moscow, while back in Italy the bank's shares are currently falling mightily on a Merrill Lynch downgrade due to their Eastern Europe exposure, may be interested to read this post of mine).

Producer Prices Fall Sharply

So the ruble is falling and the reserves are flowing out at a rather fast rate, but this is not producing inflation in Russia - in fact quite the contrary, disinflation is very strong in Russia right now, and indeed if things continue at this rate (especially given the sharp contraction in internal demand) deflation and not inflation is going to be the big headache. Some evidence to indicate this danger can be found in the fact that Russian producer prices - which are widely regarded as an early indicator of forthcoming inflation - fell sharply again in November, pushing the annual rate to its slowest pace since March 2007 as demand for material for industrial production weakened rapidly. The cost of goods leaving Russian factories and mines fell 8.4 percent between October and November, while the year on year rate of increase dropped to 4.2 percent, according to data out today (Friday) from Rostat. This compares with 17.4 percent y-o-y rate in October, the Federal Statistics Service in Moscow said today.

The November fall follows a 6.6 percent monthly drop in October, and it is clear that the rate of disinflation in producer prices is extraordinarily rapid, and it may be that we will soon enter outright price deflation. The biggest difficulty is the almost complete lack of control by anyone in authority and the with tecnical expertise to adequately handle macro economic management, whether on the upside or the downside. This is quite simply all terribly dramatic.

Consumer price inflation is also slowing, and was down to 13.8% in November, from 14.2% in October. Russia's consumer price inflation rate was running at 0.1 percent in the week between December 9 and 15, according to the Federal State Statistics Service. Inflation was thus 0.3 percent for the month to date and 12.9 percent for the year to date, compared to 0.7 percent and 11.4 percent in the same periods in 2007. So disinflation is already well at work even in consumer prices. Still, these are very - unacceptably - high numbers, and those who so willingly acquiesced in them earlier will now feel the downside of their negligence, although unfortunately it is - as ever - the poor old Russian in the street who will really pick up the bill.

Rapid Economic Slowdown

More evidence for the rapid velocity of the economic slowdown is provided by the index of key economic activities, which has fallen back from a year on year high of 10.7% in April to a 2008 low of 2.6% year on year in October. This would seem to indicate that the economy may well have been contracting month on month between September and October, although as with much of the data which follows we do not have a lot of systematic access to direct month on month comparisons to be able to closely scrutinise what is happening.



Another short term measure we have - industrial production, which is responsible for about 40 percent of Russian GDP - contracted at a year on year rate of 8.7 percent in November, the fastest rate since the 1998 financial collapse. As a result Russia’s Economy Minstry now forecast that the eonomy may contract in the first two quarters of next year, and full year growth of 2.4 percent in 2009.

My feeling is that these estimates may well be too high, and that the economy may well already be contracting in Q4 2008 (in fact Deputy Economy Minister Kelpach more or less admitted that this was the case in his earlier slip of the tongue), so we could easily see an outright GDP contraction in 2009 both in real terms and, much more seriously, in nominal terms (if we hit price deflation, everything depends on how fast the authorities let the ruble devalue). A contraction in nominal GDP would be very hard for the Russian authorities to handle - since we would be into using unconventional tools in an economy where policy managers have not yet learnt to satisfactorily use conventional ones. Month on month industrial output was down 10.8%.





Unemployment is also rising, as are overdue wages, which were up 93% over the previous month. The unemployment rate rate rose to 6.6 percent in November, which is the highest since April, but still comparatively low by historic standards, although experts suggest we could easily see this number rise towards 10% to 11% in 2009.




The total number of unemployed reached 5 million people, compared with 4.624 million in October, or 6.1 percent, according data from Rostat. Wages, however, are still rising at this point, and the average monthly wage rose an annual 7.2 percent in November to 17,995 rubles, while real disposable income fell 6.2 percent.



Russian retail sales also slowed in November and sales increased at an annual 8 percent, still quite strong, but down considerably from a revised 12.4 percent in October. Still this is the slowest pace of expansion since November 2003 and more significantly sales fell 3.4 percent from October. Retail sales have increased at an average annual rate of about 13 percent since 1998. However these have to a large extent been fuelled by unsustainable wage rises, and large scale consumer borrowing. Loans to individuals rose 58 percent in 2007, reaching 2.97 trillion rubles ($110 billion) as of 1 January 2008.



Capital investment has also been slowing, and growth was down to an annual 3.9 percent in November, the lowest rate since January 2005, according to the statistics office. Investments grew 6.9 percent in the previous month.



Thus an incredible trifecta - a unilateral decision to recognise Georgia's two separatist regions, a 66 percent fall in oil prices and the worst global financial crisis since the Great Depression - has concocted itself, and has lead to a sharp spike in investor unease which has provoked the withdraw of around $211 billion from Russia (estimate by analysts at PNB Paribas) since that fateful day when the tanks went though roaring through the Roki tunnel, and we now await to see just how sharp "sharp" means when we are talking about the slowdown in Russian GDP in 2009.

Russia's Economic And Financial Meltdown Continues Apace

Russia's foreign-exchange reserves have been now been declining very rapidly since mid August, and as the money goes so does the faith that the large stock of reserves the country built up during the boom times would be sufficient to see them through any downturn in energy prices. As the money leaves, so it seems does the decade of economic growth and stability which they symbolised. Indeed so rapid has been the decline that Russia's international reserves, which are the third-biggest after those of China and Japan, have now fallen $161 billion, or 27% percent, since 8 August last, and decreased by $17.9 billion to $437 billion in the week to 5 December. Investors have now pulled $211 billion out of the country since August, according to estimates by BNP Paribas.

But just how difficult managing this process is proving to be was illustrated yet again this morning as Russia’s central bank found itself forced to accept a further devaluation in the ruble - for what is now the second time in a only a week - subsequent to which the ruble fell as much as 1.3 percent (to a four-year low of 37.5015 per euro) as Bank Rossii widened the trading band against the basket of dollars and euros used by the bank as the measure for attempting to manage the exchange rate.

Russia has now used some 27 percent of its reserves in these attempts to stem what has now become a 16 percent decline in the ruble following a 69 percent drop in the price of oil and last weeks decision by credit ratings agency Standard & Poor’s to cut its Russian credit rating on for the first time in nine years.

Thus over at Bank Rossii they have been having their work cut out "fexibilising" the trading band, and it this flexibilisation process that has now allowed the ruble to fall against its target exchange rate against a basket of currencies by 8.6 percent, down further from the 7.7 percent level facilitated last week and the 3.7 percent one of a month ago. Thus the currency has now fallen a net total of 5.9 percent against the basket in the series of six "adjustments" to the trading band implemented since 11 November. However this "slow and steady" approach to devaluation is creating uncertainty, as well as fomenting a loss of confidence with Russians withdrwaing a total of 6 percent from their ruble accounts in October alone, the fastest rate of withdrawal since Bank Rossii started collecting this data two years ago, while foreign currency deposits rose 11 percent. Thus instead of reinforcing confidence in the monetary regime, the slow, step-by-step adjustment of the nominal exchange rate may be perpetuating a steady stream of deposit withdrawals and dollar purchases, and some evidence for this can be found in November's 5.9 percent contraction in the money supply.

Apart from the financial turmoil, Russia's economy is really reeling under the weight of the sharp drop in crude prices, and the price of Urals crude, Russia's main export blend, is currently trading at around $44.13 a barrel, down 69 percent from the July peak, and well below the $70 average required to balance the country's 2009 budget.

GDP Growth Slowing Rapidly

It is hard to get a fix at the present time on what Russia's growth rate will look like in 2009, and estimates vary widely. Deutsche Bank recently cut its Russian growth forecast to 1 percent for next year, down from an earlier 3.4 percent, while the World Bank last month forceast a slowdown to 3 percent from what has been an average expansion of 7 percent a year since 1999. At the bottom end of the forecast range we have Oleg Vyugin, chairman of MDM Bank and a former central banker, who suggests the economy may contract by as much as 4% if the prices of raw materials exports do not recover. My own feeling is that the final figure may well be much nearer to Vyugin's estimate than to the World Bank one, especially if we don't get a strong rebound in commodity prices and given the sharp contraction in non-energy industrial output.

Analysts an OAO Sperbank have gone one step further and come up with two possible scenarios for possible impacts of the economic slump on property prices. For the first (or mild case) scenario they postulate a 2.5-3.5% growth in GDP, 11% inflation and a 30 ruble per dollar exchange rate in 2009. In this case, the bank anticipates a drop in Moscow real estate prices of 34.4% in ruble terms and 46.6% in dollars. On the second scenario GDP stagnates (or even contracts by up to 2.5%), there is higher inflation and an even larger devaluation of the ruble against the dollar. On this (worst) case scenario the Bank suggests that Moscow property prices would plummet by 38.1% in rubles and 59.6% in US dollars. You have been warned!


The Inflation Worm Is At The Heart Of The Problem


The real difficulty facing Russia's macroeconomic managers is that after two years of shocking inflation domestic industry is in no position to compete with its overseas competitors while the ruble remains at its present rate, while any sharp devaluation will have a serious impact on the balance sheets of those who took advantage of cheaper interest rates available abroad to do their borrowing using forex loans. This situation is not that different from that which is to be found in many other economies across the region, in Latvia, Hungary, Ukraine and Romania (for example), with the added rider that the IMF representatives who are in dialogue with policy makers in these very fragile economies would do well to bear in mind the potential knock-on effect of any coming downward adjustment in the ruble.

In annual terms inflation is now slowing, and was down to 13.8% in November, from 14.2% in October. Still, these are very - unacceptably - high numbers, and those who so willingly acquiesced in them earlier will now feel the downside of their negligence, although unfortunately it is - as ever - the poor old Russian in the street who will really pick up the bill.



Basically, the credit driven consumer boom which accompanied the commodities one severely distorted the always delicate balance between Russia's commodities and manufacturing sectors, leaving the manufacturing sector strongly uncompetitive. It is this lack of competitiveness which now exaccerbates the severity of the downturn, just as many commentators, including yours truly, where arguing it would do. Frank Gill from Standard and Poor's puts it like this.

Accompanied by generous government spending, the credit boom also fueled inflation, which weighed on the competitiveness of Russia's noncommodity sector. As wage growth averaged nearly 30 percent over the last two years and the ruble-denominated cost of production rose, domestic manufacturers found it very difficult to compete with cheap high-quality imports. As a consequence, entrepreneurs logically avoided manufacturing and, instead, invested in much more profitable and more import-intensive sectors, such as banking, retail and construction.

The resulting structural imbalances were well camouflaged by the extraordinary growth in energy and other commodity prices. For six straight years, the earnings from Russian oil and commodity exports on world markets have increased much faster than the cost of imports, offsetting the less flattering volume effects. From 2003 through this year, the cumulative difference between export and import price inflation in Russia was a fairly remarkable 74 percent. This put upward pressure on the ruble, encouraging borrowers to take loans in dollars or euros at negative real interest rates, under the assumption that the ruble would appreciate indefinitely. But it also provided an important source of financing.
Frank Gill, director of European sovereign ratings at Standard & Poor's in London, writing in the Moscow Times

The critical part of the overheating process was to be found in the evolution of real wages which continuously outpaced productivity growth, thus undermining competitiveness. According to Rosstat, average real wage growth in the first nine months of 2008 was 12.8 percent, down from 16.2 percent during the same period in 2007 (see chart below). Meanwhile unemployment has continued to decline, and reached 5.3 percent in the third quarter, suggesting that at that point the economic slowdown had still not reached the labour market. But this is expected to change quite dramatically now, as the credit seize up and construction slump lead to lay offs in one enterprise after another.

The Russian government has implemented a programme - worth about $200 billion - involving a mixture of loans, tax cuts and other measures to boost liquidity and reduce borrowing costs as the 50-stock RTS Index heads for its worst year since 1998, while the ruble denominated Micex stock index is down 64 percent since 1 August.

``It's a vortex of despair,'' said Julian Rimmer, head of sales trading at UralSib Financial Corp. Russian stocks are weighed down by ``an economy rendered sclerotic by the vanishing of credit, a market paralyzed by margin calls and illiquidity, the opacity of earnings through 2009 and the ruble quivering while speculators circle''.

Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin has said the government has already spent 90 billion rubles ($3.3 billion) out the available total of 175 billion rubles set aside for investing in domestic stocks and bonds. VTB Group (Vnesheconombank), Russia's second-biggest bank, lent 190 billion rubles ($6.9 billion) to companies in November alone as part of the plan following the supply of 120 billion rubles to what Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin termed the "real sector" (or non financial companies) in October.

FDI Drying Up?

Russia's supply of foreign direct investment seems to be steadily drying up. During the first nine montsh of this year the country attracted 2.3 percent less foreign direct investment than it did in the same period in 2007 as the global credit squeeze reduced investor appetite for emerging market projects. Direct investment was running at $19.2 billion over the period, while total foreign investment, including credits and flows into securities markets, was $75.8 billion, a drop of almost 14 percent over 2007, according to the most recent data from the Federal Statistics Service. Foreign investment in stocks and bonds fell 16 percent to $1.3 billion. Foreign direct investment was at a record $27.8 billion in 2007, up 100% over 2006, and thus the fall has not been that dramatic, so far, but the numbers for the last quarter will undoubtedly be much worse than those for the earlier part of the year.

S&P Downgrade

Russia’s long-term debt rating was lowered earlier this month - for the first time in nine years -by ratings agency Standard & Poor’s, who cited capital outflows and the “rapid depletion” of the foreign currency reserves as their justification. Russia's rating was cut one level to BBB, the second-lowest investment grade, and down from BBB+. The last time S&P downgraded Russia was in January 1999, when the country had a rating of SD (or ‘selective default’) following the government's decision to default on $40 billion of debt. Russia’s outlook remains “negative.”

“The rapid depletion of reserves in order to resist a more substantive adjustment of the nominal exchange rate increases the chances of discontinuous exchange-rate movements later, at a lower level of international reserves, with even more severe consequences for the private sector,” said Frank Gill, S&P’s primary credit analyst in London, in the statement.

S&P said it expected Russia’s current-account surplus to swing into a deficit equivalent to 2.6 percent of gross domestic product next year, compared with a surplus of 5 percent in 2008 due to a “sharp deterioration in the country’s terms of trade”. Russia’s GDP growth is expected to decline “sharply” in 2009, according to the agency.

Energy, including crude oil and natural gas, accounted for 73 percent of exports to countries outside of the former Soviet Union (not counting the three Baltic states), in the first 10 months of this year, according to data from the Federal Customs Service, while the federal budget is likely to “shift into deficit” as the government implements emergency tax cuts, commodities prices remain low, and a weaker economy generates less tax revenue, according to S&P. Russia’s budget surplus amounted to 7.8 percent of GDP in the first 10 months, according to Finance Ministry data, but so sharp is the turnaround that Russia may need to use most, or even all, of the money in its two oil funds to cover the budget deficit and recapitalize banks should oil prices stay at about current levels. These funds - the National Wellbeing Fund and the Reserve Fund - held a combined $209 billion as of 1 December.

Moody’s Investors Service also changed Russia’s rating outlook at the end of November - to stable from positive - citing their opinion that the defense of the exchange rate has been "ineffective and extremely costly for official reserves".

“Russia is now facing a perfect storm of falling commodity prices, weaker external demand, tighter credit conditions and slower real incomes growth for which no amount of currency adjustment can compensate,” Neil Shearing, an emerging-markets economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London, said in a research note today.

Russia's response to the crisis seems to be what might be termed a "process in development", with new measures being continuously announced. In one of the latest such "developments" Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said the government is thinking of using some of the funding to buy bank mortgages and will also provide 300 billion rubles ($11 billion) to guarantee corporate loans in a bid to boost liquidity. “In order to strengthen guarantees for loans, including loans for two and three years, the state must be ready to provide 300 billion rubles,” Kudrin said in a televised broadcast on the Russian state channel Vesti-24. “If necessary we can increase this limit.” Thirty billion rubles in loans are also to be provided to large airlines like Aeroflot and Transaero, according to First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, while Vnesheconombank, Russia’s state-run development bank, has now requested a total of 950 billion rubles ($34 billion) in government funds. To put all this in perspective, the latest amount requested by VEB represents more than 7.5 percent of Russia’s foreign-currency reserves.


Services And Manufacturing Contraction

Russia's real economy is shrinking very rapidly under the weight of all this. Russian service industries shrank in November at the fastest rate on record, and the VTB Bank Europe Services Sector Purchasing Managers’ Index was in contraction mode for a second consecutive month (registering 37.2, a sharp acceleration in the rate of contraction from the 47.4 reading in October). On such indexes a reading of 50 is the dividing line between expansion and contraction. The contraction in service industries was “by far” the biggest since the survey began in October 2001, according to the VTB statement. “Activity, new business, employment and backlogs all registered much steeper contractions than in October.”

VTB Group’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index also showed a decline in November, this time for the fourth consecutive month, and the index registered a record low of 39.8, even lower than that of September 1998, when Russia defaulted on $40 billion of domestic debt and sharply devalued the ruble.

The manufacturing reading is also confirmed to some extent by the November industrial output data from Rostat, since output contracted year on year by 8.7 percent after a 0.6 percent rise in October. Production shrank for the first time since new methodology was introduced in 2003 and, again, this was the biggest decline since 1998. Manufacturing fell an annual 10.3 percent compared with growth of 0.3 percent in October. Steel pipe production dropped an annual 36.9 percent and coking coal output fell 38.7 percent. Truck and car production dropped 58.1 percent and 7.2 percent respectively. Russia’s largest steelmaker, OAO Severstal, have announced they are cutting output by half and plan to reduce spending 20 percent in 2009, while Ford Motor announced on 8 December it was closing its St. Petersburg factory between 24 December and 21 January.

Is Russia On The Brink Of Outright Recession?

Russia may well already be in its first recession since 1998, according to what may well have been a slip of the tongue by Deputy Economy Minister Andrei Klepach while Evgeny Gavrilenkov, chief economist at Troika Dialog, estimates that the word's largest energy exporter may already be running a current account deficit.

“The recession has already begun and, I’m afraid, it won’t end in two quarters,” Klepach said in comments made in Moscow today that were confirmed by his press secretary.

Klepach added that the economy would grow by less than the ministry’s current forecast of 6.8 percent for 2008, and that industrial output growth will slow to around 1.9 percent for the whole year.

Gross domestic product growth dropped to 6.2 percent in the third quarter, and this was already the slowest pace in three years. Russia’s last economy fell into recession in the first quarter of 1998, and only returned to growth in the second quarter of 1999. Growth has averaged over 7 percent a year since 2000.

As I said, Klepach's declaration may well have been a (Freudian?) slip of the tongue (or tongue twister) since he later qualified his statement, saying there had been some linguistic confusion given that the Russian words “retsessiya” (recession) and “spad” (decline, slump) “mean the same thing". "This isn’t a technical recession in the American sense.” he said - referring to the fact that a recession is often defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Actually the sticklers among us will note that the two quarters negative growth rule of thumb is not in fact the US criterion (since the NBER business cycle dating committee use their own "in house" methodology, as I explain in applying this methodology to Spain here), but he may be right, and what we have on our hands may best be termed a "slump" rather than a recession, but which ever it is, of one thing I am sure: the contraction has already started.

Whatever the confusion, what Klepach did make clear is that he expected Russia’s economy to grow by only 2.6 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter (giving total growth for the year of 6 percent) and this does seem to suggest that the economy is already contracting on a quarter on quarter basis.

Equally worrying is the evolution in the current account deficit. The full impact of the fall in oil prices will only be noted in the trade and external current account data in the fourth quarter, when export deliveries based on the new lower oil prices will be effectd. But to this evident oil price impact we need to add the fact that the non-oil external current account deteriorated significantly in 2008 as import volumes shot up considerably faster than non-oil exports (the competitiveness problem). In the second quarter of 2008, the non-oil external current account deficit reached almost US 60 billion, and this was followed by a further USD 62 billion in the third quarter, making Russia’s balance of payments position particularly vulnerable to a continuation in the low level of oil and gas prices.

We also need to consider the problems Russia may now have in financing any such current account deficit (remember this one one of S&Ps concerns). The World Bank estimates Russia’s external debt maturing in the third and fourth quarters of 2008 at around USD 100 billion, of which about USD 45 billion is due in the last quarter of 2008. After including on-demand deposits held by the banking sector, the total debt that requires repayment or refinancing may well exceed USD 120 billion. The external debt maturing for the entire 2009 fiscal year is slightly less, at around USD 100 billion. It is clear, however, that some sectors, especially private financial corporations, are going to face challenges in rolling-over their external debt under current conditions. Further, higher prices for debt refinancing are inevitable, and to all of this you need to add-in the sharp drop in the stock values used as loan collateral which will have resulted in sizeable margin calls on lending facilities with 1-2 year maturities.

All in all the World Bank reached the conclusion that the total debt due in the fourth quarter of 2008 could amount to about USD 60-65 billion. Even so, they concluded that systemic risk to the banking sector, while rising, remained limited due to the government’s resolve in supporting the systemically important banks and the sizable package of measures taken to date. It is hard to assess whether or not they are right in this evaluation, but in any event we are all just about to find out, so those of us who don't especially like mysteries won't have too long to wait.

Massive Foreign Reserves Outflow Puts Russia's Ruble Trading Band Under Threat

Russia's currency reserves, the third-biggest in the world, are falling steadily as tumbling oil prices and an exodus of capital are piling the pressure on the central bank and government policymakers to accept a devaluation in the ruble. Oil prices which are now down 60% from their july peak, slowing economic growth and increasing investor concern are steadily draining Russia's foreign exchange reserves, which fell 19 percent (to $484.6 billion) in the 12 weeks through Oct. 31. This is down from $598.1 billion in the week before the invasion of Southern Ossetia.

Russia had been using the reserves to try and contain the upward movement in the ruble was thought to present a threat to the competitiveness of exports. But resistance is now becoming increasingly difficult in the fact of a 13 percent drop against the dollar since August 1.

Bank Rossii began managing the ruble's exchange rate in February 2005 against a
currency basket comprised of about 55 percent dollars and 45 percent euros.
Policy makers let it trade within a fixed range in mid-May. Since then, it has
dropped 2.1 percent against the basket to 30.4020. Though the central bank
doesn't reveal the limits of the band, BNP Paribas considers 30.40 to be its
weaker end.

Evidently the main responsibility for the drop in the ruble has been a change in the relative values of the currencies in the basket, with the euro falling significantly against the dollar.

The central bank sold a record $40 billion in October, according to Moscow-based Trust Investment Bank, while Troika Dialog, the country's oldest investment bank, have warned that the currency may fall by as much as 30 percent in the event of a devaluation.

The logic behind any impending devaluation would not be too hard to find either. Try looking at the inflation bonfire which has been allowed to rage in Russia over the last eighteen months.

Inflation Drops Back In October, But Is Still At 14.2%


Russia's inflation rate fell to 14.2 percent, the lowest in seven months, in September as grain, legumes and gasoline prices all decreased. The rate dropped from 15 percent in September, according to data from the Moscow- based Federal Statistics Service. Prices were up 0.9 percent on the month, after rising 0.8 percent in September.






Bank Rossii, Russia's central bank, may have to increase the "flexibility'' of the ruble exchange rate, and this will involve a "certain tendency toward weakening'' according to bank Chairman Sergey Ignatiev speaking on state television Vesti-24 last week.

Russia may "gradually'' widen the trading band if the current account falls into a deficit next year, according to Arkady Dvorkovich, an economic adviser to President Dmitry Medvedev, recently.

And Russia's current account, the widest measure of flows in goods and services, seems now to be inexorably headed toward just thatdeficit. Russia's trade surplus narrowed to $16.4 billion in September, from $18.5 billion in August, according to the latest data from Bank Rossii .

Russia's benchmark 30-year government bond has fallen substantially in 2008, pushing the yield to an almost seven-year high of 12.55 percent as of Oct. 27. So far this year, the RTS Index has lost 64 percent, and is headed for its worst performance since 1998.

And Corporate Lending Piles Up And Up

VTB Group, Russia's second-biggest lender, has lent 377 billion rubles ($14 billion) to Russian companies since the beginning of September. The state-run bank provided 120 billion rubles worth of loans in September, 229 billion rubles in October and 28 billion rubles in the first week of November. Most of the money was leant by VTB (94 billion rubles) to metals companies. This was followed by 33 billion rubles for the power industry and 32 billion rubles for retail companies. The bank increased its corporate loan portfolio to 667 billion rubles in the first 10 months of 2008, from 363 billion rubles in the same period last year, according to the bank. The bank has also increased its retail loan portfolio by 183 billion rubles, a 97 percent increase from the first 10 months of 2007.

Russian Services Contract In October

Russia's service industries contracted in October for the first time in more than seven years as the effects of the financial crisis spread into the real economy. VTB Bank Europe's Purchasing Managers' Index of growth in services fell to 47.4 from 55.5 in September. A figure below 50 shows a contraction.



If we put this chart alongside the October manufacturing PMI one, it is clear that something significant happened in October. If things continue this way we are heading straight for recession I would say.




Update Tuesday 11 November 2008


The ruble fell this morning by the most in at least a month against the central bank's dollar-euro basket and stocks fell back as traders speculate policy makers are allowing the currency to weaken. The Micex Stock Exchange halted trading for an hour after the benchmark index sank almost 10 percent. The dollar-denominated RTS Index slipped 8.5 percent to 743.77. The ruble extended its 16 percent drop since August 1 following the statement by central bank Chairman Sergey Ignatiev (see above) that under current conditions the ruble may have a ``certain tendency toward weakening.''

The ruble declined 1 percent to 30.6879 versus the basket as of 1:30 p.m. in Moscow. Against the dollar, it was at 27.3040 having earlier slid by as much as 1.3 percent to 27.3975. It was 1 percent weaker against the euro at 34.8484 per euro.


In other news Fitch Ratings yesterday followed Standard & Poor's and lowered the outlook for Russia's credit rating to negative, while Bank Rossii today set a limit of 10 billion rubles ($366 million) on the amount of so-called currency swaps it offered. The swaps allow traders to bet on the exchange rate without having to sell rubles. The central bank started curbing swaps on Oct. 20 in theory to deter "speculators".

Among the falling stocks were those of OAO Sberbank, which dropped sharply after Vedomosti reported that Russia's largest savings bank had suffered a record $3 billion of withdrawals from retail accounts in October. Sberbank, which is the biggest holder of ruble deposits, fell 3.2 rubles, or 10 percent, to 27.63 rubles on the Micex Stock Exchange. Retail clients of Russia's biggest bank withdrew 80 billion rubles ($3 billion) in October, a record amount for a single month, Vedomosti reported, citing an unidentified person familiar with the bank's accounts. Central bank Chairman Sergey Ignatiev estimated yesterday said net private capital outflows reached $50 billion in October.

Update Wednesday 12 November


Russia's central bank lifted its key policy interest rate to 12 percent from 11 percent after the market closed yesterday. The move is widely interpreted as an attempt to stem the massive outflow of funds. The central bank also widened its trading band target by 30 kopeks (1 cent) yesterday, a move which "achieved almost nothing'' and cost the best part of $7 billion of the nation's foreign-currency reserves, according to analysts at Renaissance Capital. Russia has thus joined central banks in Hungary, Iceland and Pakistan in raising interest rates to stem currency losses while the rest of the world cuts benchmark levels to try to promote lending.


The cost of protecting against a default by Russia also soared after the decisions were announced. Credit-default swaps on Russian government bonds jumped to 7.17 percent of the amount insured from 6.14 percent yesterday, according to CMA Datavision prices. The yield on its 30-year dollar bonds increased to 10.77 percent from 9.1 percent.

The ruble fell back 1 percent yesterday, the biggest daily drop in two months.

Russian Manufacturing Contracts Again In October

Russian manufacturing contracted in October at the slowest pace in over two and a half years as the global financial crisis cut demand, according to the latest reading on VTB Bank Europe's Purchasing Managers' Index, which fell to 46.4 from 49.8 in September. This was the third consecutive month in which Russian industry has been contracting. A figure above 50 on these indexes indicates growth, while one below 50 means contraction.





Banks Lose $1.6 Billion In Assets


Sberbank, VTB Group and the other Russian banks lost a total of $1.6 billion from their stock and bond holdings in September, according to an estimate from UniCredit analysts who based their estimate on central bank data. Overdue loans held by banks rose rose in September to 1.45 percent (up from 1.33 percent tin August, according to Rustam Botashev, a Moscow-based analyst for UniCredit. The central bank said on November 1 that personal deposits in Russian banks fell 1.5 percent in September as people withdrew money amid global financial turmoil. Total deposits declined to 5.89 trillion rubles ($220 billion) on October 1 from 5.98 trillion rubles on September 1


National Wellbeing Fund Continues To Rise

The total assets of Russia's combined oil funds rose 4 percent - to $197.4 billion - in October after the transfer of taxes from oil revenue, according to data from the Finance Ministry. The National Wellbeing Fund held 1.7 trillion rubles as of November 1, equivalent to $62.8 billion, while the Reserve Fund held 3.6 trillion rubles, or $134.6 billion. Russia transfers a part of its oil and gas revenue to its two oil funds, which were created after the Stabilization Fund was split in two in February 2008.

Oil Stabilisation Fund

Reserve Fund
AUM: $134.6 Billion
The Reserve Fund may, by law, only invest in foreign government bonds.

National Welfare Fund
$62.8 Billion
Initially funded with just $32 Billion starting, this fund could increase dramatically in the future if oil prices start to rise again. The fund will mostly be managed by the Russian Ministry of Finance. The fund also has the ability to lend money to Russian banks. Furthermore the Fund is intended to serve as a tool for absorbing excess liquidity, in order to try to reduce inflationary pressure as well as insulate the economy from volatility in oil & gas export prices. The fund may invest in riskier assets, such as corporate bonds and possibly, at some point, equities.

The Russian state banks VEB and Sberbank are to get funds from the National Wealth Fund to place on deposit until 2020 as part of the recent plan to rescue the country's financial sector. The draft of the new law states that Sberbank will get a subordinated 500 billion rouble ($19.11 billion) loan at an annual interest of 8 percent and will issue a bonds to guarantee it. VEB will get the money from the National Wealth Fund at a rate of 7 percent a year and will provide loans to state bank VTB, and other banks and companies at 8 percent a year.

In line with this decision 170 billion rubles from the Wellbeing Fund ($6.3 billion) were last week deposited with the state development bank, Vnesheconombank. Russia has pledged a total of more than $200 billion to replenish liquidity and help companies overcome what is evidently now the worst financial crisis since the 1998 default on sovereign debt. The Russian government has said it will transfer 450 billion rubles from the Wellbeing Fund to Vnesheconombank, known as VEB, at an annual interest rate of 7 percent until 2019 for providing subordinate loans to banks. A further 175 billion rubles will be transferred from the fund at the same interest rate through 2013 to support local securities. Of the money deposited with Vnesheconombank, 125 billion rubles will go toward subordinate loans and 45 billion will be invested in Russian stocks and bonds.

Oil Production Down In October


Russia's oil production continued to fall in October - dropping for the 10th consecutive month - as producers struggled with rising costs and maturing fields, bringing the world's second-biggest crude exporter closer to its first annual drop in output since 1998. Output fell 0.7 percent compared with a year earlier to 9.87 million barrels of crude a day (41.7 million metric tons a month), according to figures released by the Energy Ministry. Output in Russia's oil heartland of western Siberia is sagging as older fields mature and producers are forced into remote regions to tap deposits. Oil companies need credit lines totaling $100 billion to make investments endangered by the global financial crisis, according to the Vedomosti newspaper, which cited a letter from Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin to President Dmitry Medvedev.

Ruble Falls The Most In Nearly A Decade In October


The ruble suffered its biggest monthly decline against the dollar in nine and a half years in October. Investors took $72 billion out of Russia during October, and have now taken around $140 billion since early August, according to estimates by BNP Paribas, while the Micex Index dropped 30 percent and pushed the yield on the 30-year government bond to a seven-year high.

The currency, which the central bank manages against a basket of dollars and euros, weakened 1 percent to 27.0955 per dollar last Friday, taking its decline on the month to 5.6 percent, the most since March 1999.

Bank Rossii, the central bank, buys and sells foreign- currency reserves to keep the ruble within a trading band against the basket. The mechanism comprises about 55 percent dollars and 45 percent euros and is used to protect the competitiveness of Russian exports from currency swings. The ruble fell 0.2 percent to 30.4036 versus the basket, from 30.3512 yesterday, and was little changed from 30.3675 at the end of September.

Bank Rossii - the Russian central bank - sold $40 billion in October, a record, to prevent the ruble from weakening beyond 30.40 to the basket. During the third week in October alone Russia's reserves dropped by $31 billion (another record) according to data from the central bank.

Moscow's Bourses Closed Again On Monday

Well, this is hardly news anymore, but Moscow's stock markets were closed again this morning. The news will obviously be in future when they are open. Russia's Micex Stock Exchange and RTS suspended trading this morning because their "technical indexes'' a measure of aggregate stock prices, fell more than 10 percent on opening.

Russian global depositary receipts plunged in London trading following the decision, led by steelmakers. The FTSE Russia IOB Index, a measure of Russian depositary receipts trading in London, sank 11 percent to 312.83 at 9:36 a.m. in London, the lowest in almost five years. OAO Severstal, Russia's biggest steelmaker, fell 23 percent to $2.50. Evraz Group SA, the second-largest steelmaker, dropped 15 percent to $10.60, or 92 percent below its May 16 high.

The Ruble Slides


The ruble fell to an 18-month low against the dollar this morning even while it strengthened for a second straight day versus an ever weaker euro.

The currency, which policy makers manage against a dollar- euro basket in an attempt to protect the competitiveness of exporters, fell as much as 0.6 percent to 27.3738 per dollar, the weakest since April 2006. It was at 27.3624 by 11:01 a.m. in Moscow, from 27.1991 late on Oct. 24. The ruble jumped 0.9 percent to 34.0292 per euro, the strongest in almost two years.

Bank Rossii, Russia's central bank, buys and sells foreign currency reserves to keep the ruble within a trading band against the basket. The basket rate is calculated by multiplying the ruble's rate to the dollar by 0.55, the euro rate by 0.45, then adding them together. Russia's currency was little changed at 30.3757 against the basket, from 30.4096 at the end of last week, when it strengthened just 0.1 percent. The 30.40 level is regarded by most analysts as the weakest end of the central bank's trading band. Bank Rossii sold almost $11 billion supporting the ruble against the basket last week, according to estimates by Moscow's MDM Bank.

Crude oil, Russia's biggest export earner, fell for a second day, extending its decline from a July 11 record of $142.27 to 57 percent. Urals crude, the nation's main export blend, slid 10 percent last week to $59.93, below the $70 average.

As S&P Cut The Credit Rating, Russia's Crisis Wends On Down Its Long Winding Road

Russia's long-term sovereign credit rating outlook was lowered yesterday (Thursday) - to negative - by Standard & Poor's Ratings Services due to their assessment that the cost of the government's "bank rescue operation'' may increase. S&P cut their outlook from stable, a move which reflects the increased probability of a downgrade at some point in the future. Russia has committed as much as 15 percent of gross domestic product in budgetary and reserve funds to maintain banking liquidity, according to calculations made by the rating agency. At the same time S&P affirmed Russia's BBB+ long-term foreign currency and the A- long-term local currency ratings and the short-term ratings of A-2.

``We expect Russian corporate and financial sector default rates to increase as
debtors' access to official funds will vary,'' S&P said in the statement.
``Other uncertainties remain regarding what the economic policy response will be
to weakening growth, and whether the ongoing concentration of the financial
system in state hands is permanent or temporary.''

Russia's reserves fell $14.9 billion last week to $515.7 billion according to the latest data from the central bank. This was the third straight week of decline, and the fall comes after the central bank sold foreign currency to prop up the ruble. Obviously there are plenty of reserves left, but this is down from around $550 billion in August, so it can't go on forever, either. The ruble weakened yesterday by as much as 0.5 percent to hit 27.0664 to the dollar at one point, the lowest since July 2006. It later rebounded and was 0.1 percent lower on the day at 26.9538 at the close in Moscow.

Russian government bonds fell, with the yield on the 7.5 percent bond due 2030 rising 8 basis points to 10.94 percent, the highest for more than six years. The 12.75 percent bond maturing 2028 yielded 10.56 percent, up 84 basis points to a six-year high. The yield on the 11 percent bond due 2018 jumped 93 points to 8 percent, the most since 2004.

Micex Closes Again

Russia's Micex Stock Exchange slid again today, and suspended trading at 2:10 p.m. until next week. The next session will start on October 28, but with the Russian bourses now closed almost as often as they are open, it is hard to be sure about anything at this point. The so-called technical index fell more than 10 percent, triggering the halt, according to information available on the stock exchange Web site.

Russian stocks dropped for a third day, led by banks, on concern the turmoil in the country's equity markets is spreading to bonds and the ruble. OAO Sperbank, Russia's largestest bank, slid 15 percent and VTB Group, the second-largest, dropped 3.9 percent following a decline in Asian financial stocks. OAO Rosneft tumbled 9.4 percent as oil fell.

Crude dropped 1.7 percent to $69.68 a barrel in New York trading yesterday, after slumping 4.5 percent on Wednesday. Urals crude, Russia's export blend, fell 4.3 percent to $66.16 a barrel. Urals needs to average $70 a barrel next year for the country's budget to balance, according to the Finance Ministry.

Aid For The Crisis Hit Property Sector

Russia's government will decide "within days'' on how to help developers and reassure banks on loans for the building industry during an economic slowdown, according to Arkady Dvorkovich, an economic aide to President Dmitry Medvedev. Construction, agriculture, machine-tools building and retail are the non-financial industries the government plans to boost, along with small businesses across the economy.

Dvorkovich told reporters that the Russian government is discussing two possible mechanisms to help reassure banks vis a vis their lending to construction companies.

The government may offer to buy unsold apartments at a fixed price in residential buildings that are still under construction, once the buildings are completed. Another possibility is that the OAO Agency for Housing Mortgage Lending, the state-run mortgage agency, will refinance loans once construction of a residential building is completed.

Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said earlier in the week that Russia's "overheated'' construction industry is facing difficult times,. Bank loans to construction companies increased 80 percent last year, compared with a 64 percent increase in borrowing for real-estate purchases, a sign that developers are over-building, according to Kudrin.

Soyuzcement, an industry group, have reported that cement producers are reducing plans for new factories as the credit crunch derails construction projects, while companies in industrial and services sectors right across the Russian economy are cutting back on jobs and investments.



Russia plans to establish a margin of spare oil production capacity as an alternative to cutting output, in order to indirectly influence prices according to Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin. He said Russia would not be joining in the OPEC cut back and argued that maintaining extra output capacity may allow Russia to produce oil ``at a volume that would allow more effective price parameters to be reached, ". According to Sechin "Oil has become more of a financial instrument than a commodity.''


Russian state revenue will more than likely fall sharply as the price of oil, the country's biggest export, plunges and capital flight accelerates on concern the global economy will enter a recession.

Russian companies and banks have applied for almost $100 billion of loans from state development bank Vnesheconombank to refinance foreign debt after credit markets worldwide seized up, threatening economic growth. Banks have asked for $64 billion, while companies have requested $33 billion, according to bank Chairman Vladimir Dmitriev. The bank's supervisory board plans to review the first 10 projects, from commodities and manufacturing companies, "in the near future". Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is chairman of the bank board.

Russia's government allocated $50 billion to Vnesheconombank, or VEB, as part of a more than $200 billion package to stem the country's worst financial crisis since 1998. Companies can apply for loans of between $100 million and $2.5 billion, Dmitriev said Oct. 13. Vnesheconombank will receive rescue funds after reviewing applications, Dmitriev said today.


Russian companies may default on almost a third of local-currency bonds as soaring borrowing costs make it "impossible'' to refinance the debt, according to Denis Gaevski, head of capital markets at Bank of Moscow, which the third-biggest arranger of ruble bonds. Companies may default on between 20 and 30 percent of the bonds, with retailers particularly vulnerable, he said.

Russian companies are estimated to have sold 406 billion rubles ($15.2 billion) of bonds this year, with almost all of the sales taking place before August, when Russia's invasion of Georgia triggered an investor exodus during which around $63 billion have left the country, according to a UniCredit estimate.

The average price of ruble-denominated corporate debt dropped to an all-time low of 86 percent of face value on Wednesday, from more than 100 percent in June, according to the MICEXCBI index of bonds traded on Moscow's Micex Stock Exchange. Bonds payable in 2009 by Moscow-based property developer Mirax Group traded for as little as 30 percent earlier this month, and were priced at 54 percent of face value in the middle of this week.

The average interest rate Russian banks charge to lend money to each other overnight - the so called MosPrime rate - oreached a record 21 percent last week, but was back down to 7.67 percent yesterday.


Slumping commodities prices, the war with Georgia and the seizing up of global capital markets prompted investors to pull money out of Russia, despite the best efforst of the Russian government to restore confidence and to inject money into the system to brake the slowdown. Last month the Russian government has pledged more than $200 billion for banks and companies to stem the worst financial crisis since 1998.

Russia's Crisis Gathers Momentum

Russia's government plans to lend the country's biggest banks 950 billion rubles ($36 billion) for at least five years in an attempt to unfreeze credit markets, according to a new plan announced by President Dmitry Medvedev this morning. State-run OAO Sberbank and VTB Group, will get 500 billion rubles and 200 billion rubles respectively.

Some 450 billion roubles ($17.19 billion) of the 950 billion rouble subordinate loans package for banks will come from one of the National Wealth Funds according to Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said on Tuesday. Russia's two oil wealth funds totalled $189.7 billion as of Oct. 1.


The Russian authorities, who are currently grappling with the worst financial crisis since the government's debt default in 1998, have already pledged more than $150 billion for banks and companies through loans and tax benefits (see details in this post here).


Stocks First Rise And Then Fall Back

Russian stocks rose following the announcement, and with OAO Sberbank and VTB Group leading the advance. OAO Rosneft, Russia's biggest oil producer, pared back some of yesterday's 24 percent decline after crude rose in New York. The Micex Index initially gained 5.7 percent to 794.48 at 2:12 p.m. in Moscow, after falling 19 percent yesterday. The dollar- denominated RTS Index climbed 4 percent to 900.60 after retreating 19 percent yesterday, the biggest slump since the index began in 1995.

However the good news was not to last long, and it seems the plan wasn't enough to convince investors the government can halt its worst financial crisis since 1998. On the day the Micex Index fell 4.5 percent to 717.83, after losing 19 percent yesterday, and closed at its lowest level since August 2005.

Share trading on Russia's bourses had earlier been suspended for a second day first thing this morning following yesterday's massive sell off. Russia's stock markets have now been halted nine times since Sept. 16. One indication of just how critical the situation is becoming is the fact that the MosPrime interbank rate - that is the rate that Russian banks charge to lend to each other - soared to 7.29 percent today from 4.75 percent at the end of last week.

Russia's oil and gas majors were all down, with Gazprom sinking 4.9 percent to 136.10 rubles. Rosneft falling 6.6 percent to 101.87 rubles, and Lukoil declining 5.3 percent to 1,047.90 rubles.

The price of oil, which has slipped 38 percent from a record $147.27 a barrel July 11, snapped a four-day decline this morning, rising 3 percent to $90.47 a barrel, and all the majors seem to have applied to the government for help with loans. Lukoil is seeking between $2 billion and $5 billion to refinance loans, but many other companies are also reported to be seeking government loans, including OAO Gazprom, OAO Rosneft, and TNK-BP, BP Plc's 50 percent Russian venture.


Fence Mending

Russia is urgently seeking to mend fences with the west after the damage done by the conflict in Georgia, amid fears that the country faces a suuden slowdwon followed by an extended period of stag­flation.

According to Igor Yurgens - former vice-president and executive secretary of the Russian Union of Industrialists & Entrepreneurs, and currently an adviser to Dmitry Medvedev - the Russian administration are trying their best to send signals of an improved business climate as Russia battles to restore investor confidence, which he recognises have been badly shaken by the cold war style rhetoric of recent weeks .


According to Yurgens - as quoted by the Financial Times this morning - both Dmitry Medvedev and Vladimir Putin understand the government needs to improve the climate for foreign and, mainly, Russian investors “who are sort of scared”. “A big financial crunch outside and a crisis of confidence and cold-warish kind of attitude inside was too much.”

Mr Yurgens told the FT that a slowdown in growth because “credit lines are closed” was inevitable with a fall of as much as 4 percentage points in GDP growth from the current 8 percent level. This provisional estimate of the growth rate at the end of 2008 seems realistic to me.

The head of a think tank advising the president, Igor Yurgens was pretty much a lone voice criticising Vladimir Putin this summer for his attack on Mechel, a coal and steel group, and his comments at the time was one of the factors which helped trigger the investor exodus due to concern over political risks.

The government’s reining in of its rhetoric “is visible and is being substantiated by some megadeals in the pipeline and signed, such as Eon Ruhrgas”, he said, referring to last week’s deal between Eon and Gazprom.

“You could feel a little bit of discontent with the hawkish rhetoric and you see the adjustment,” he said, adding that Mr Medvedev hoped to push ahead with cutting back bureaucracy and stimulating growth in the oil ­sector via tax incentives. I guess we can consider this mornings reported decision of the Russian authorities to extend a 4 billion-euro ($5.43 billion) loan to Iceland to be the kind of pacificatory measure Yurgens has in mind.


Meanwhile Andrei Sharonov, managing director of Troika Dialog, the Russia's oldest investment bank, warned yesterday that the country was "quite vulnerable" to the global credit crisis and with retailers and developers being particularly at risk, while Bloomberg cite Gulzhan Moldazhanova, chief executive officer of Basic Element, the investment group of Russia's richest man, Oleg Deripaska, to the effect that Russian retailers are currently being offered credit with an interest rate of up to 35 percent.

``There are two main consequences for Russia, a lack of confidence and a lack of liquidity,'' Sharonov, a deputy economy minister until resigning in July last year, said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Moscow. ``This problem is not only for financial institutions, but for the whole of industry, for the whole economy. Many companies feel these problems with debt financing.''

Russia's ruble fell for the eighth consecutive day yesterday, and hit its weakest level in 18 months against the dollar at 26.2043. The extra yield investors demand to own developing-nation bonds instead of U.S. Treasuries swelled 48 basis points, or 0.48 percentage point, to a four-year high of 4.85 percentage points, according to the JPMorgan Chase & Co EMBI+ index.

The cost of protecting bonds sold by Russia's government jumped the most in three weeks, rising 26 basis points to 290, according to CMA Datavision in London. Credit default swaps on Ukrainian government debt also soared 57 basis points to 900, the highest among Europe's emerging markets, CMA prices show.




Disclosure Statement: Edward Hugh is a macroeconomist who maintains a premier set of blogs at Global Economy Matters and is a featured analyst at Emerginvest. Edward Hugh provides non-partisan information about world stock markets, and does not have any holdings in foreign equities. The information stated above should not be construed as investment advice, and Edward Hugh is not liable for any actions taken on said materials.