tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7303901362201842397.post8253526446455471532..comments2009-12-11T09:53:43.900+01:00Comments on Russia Economy Watch: Russia's Finances and Economy Look Nervously Towards The AbyssUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7303901362201842397.post-86964787005090173162009-02-19T08:06:00.000+01:002009-02-19T08:06:00.000+01:00Hi Nobody,"Do you think the US stimulus package an...Hi Nobody,<BR/><BR/>"Do you think the US stimulus package and other programs may have an impact on the credit crunch globally, affecting other countries such as Russia?"<BR/><BR/>Sorry I have been so long getting back, I really am busy these days. I think the US package is very necessary, but there are doubts as to the extent that this will work in the short term. At best it may prevent more structural damage and put a platform underneath the economy rather than jump starting it, which I think, given the level of leverage, is going to be hard.<BR/><BR/>Did you see Krugman yesterday?<BR/><BR/><I>"And needless to say, we can't all export ourselves out of a global slump. So, how does this end?"</I><BR/><BR/>Martin Wolf was also getting near the heart of the problem this week:<BR/><BR/><I>It is, for this reason, fanciful to imagine a swift and strong return to global growth. Where is the demand to come from? From over-indebted western consumers? Hardly. From emerging country consumers? Unlikely. From fiscal expansion? Up to a point. But this still looks too weak and too unbalanced, with much coming from the US. China is helping, but the eurozone and Japan seem paralysed, while most emerging economies cannot now risk aggressive action.</I><BR/><BR/>So the bottom line is that there are good theoretical reasons for thinking that Russia will not get much in the way of uplift, either from the US programme, or the China one. So they are out on their own resources for the time being.<BR/><BR/>Mail me if you want to go on my mailing list where these kind of topics are discussed.<BR/><BR/>EdwardEdward Hughhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10384039867580949531noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7303901362201842397.post-55172609106147598082009-02-18T01:00:00.000+01:002009-02-18T01:00:00.000+01:00The main question here is how will this effect tat...The main question here is how will this effect tatarstan, and its quest for freedom? For anyone who wants to learn about the freedom of tatarstan I suggest you watch this video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oMuQ9v1-EEs which will help you understand the oppression tatars in Russia face.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7303901362201842397.post-38181960753923766112009-02-17T10:05:00.000+01:002009-02-17T10:05:00.000+01:00Hi EduardDo you think the US stimulus package and ...Hi Eduard<BR/><BR/>Do you think the US stimulus package and other programs may have an impact on the credit crunch globally, affecting other countries such as Russia? I mean they are going to sell treasuries in trillions within the next two years. As far I can get it, they are basically going to suck off what's still available on financial marketsNobodyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09952955021226297401noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7303901362201842397.post-12512055669653374262009-02-12T00:04:00.000+01:002009-02-12T00:04:00.000+01:00exports and CIS data wasn't released so far and on...exports and CIS data wasn't released so far and one also has to consider that the customs' import data is always 10% lower than the CBR's. I don't know the reason for this, but probably the CBR accounts for black imports/exports, though the effect on exports is much smaller, around 1%Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7303901362201842397.post-71076695137882045742009-02-11T23:32:00.000+01:002009-02-11T23:32:00.000+01:00Russia’s non-CIS imports down 35.6%11 February 200...Russia’s non-CIS imports down 35.6%<BR/>11 February 2009<BR/>Provided by: ITAR-TASS World <BR/><BR/> <BR/>MOSCOW, February 11 (Itar-Tass) —— Russia's imports from countries outside the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) fell 35.6% on the year and 60.7% on the month to U.S. $7.5 billion in January, the Federal Customs Service said in a report obtained by Prime-Tass on Wednesday.<BR/>Imports of machinery fell 46.9% on the year to $3.276 billion in January, while imports of food products decreased 24.9% to $1.285 billion, imports of chemical products fell 28.9% to $1.139 billion, and imports of textile products and footwear fell 2.7% to $586.3 million, the customs service said.<BR/>-0-necAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7303901362201842397.post-84203441056080849522009-02-09T20:56:00.000+01:002009-02-09T20:56:00.000+01:00I was wrong, the Economist's forecast was indeed 4...I was wrong, the Economist's forecast was indeed 4 %.<BR/><BR/>I don't think that at the 40 $ level Russia will have a negative current account, the December data is anecdotal evidence. Imports will only go down the next months, there were a lot of devaluation anticipating imports in December I guess, plus the devaluation itself will push imports down. <BR/>Probably exports will also go down in January (lag between commodity future prices and the gas war), but still current account will remain in the positive territory at current levels I think.<BR/>If oil drops to 30-35$ and stays there, current account could indeed turn negative.<BR/><BR/>anyway a 4% deficit(around 50-60bln $) seems to be an exorbitant exaggeration, that I contribute to the overall anti- Russian bias of the Economist( or do they forecast a price of oil around 30$ for 09?)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7303901362201842397.post-10246541986149703992009-02-09T19:34:00.000+01:002009-02-09T19:34:00.000+01:00Hi,"so much about the forecasts Russia will have a...Hi,<BR/><BR/>"so much about the forecasts Russia will have a current account deficit of 6% in 09"<BR/><BR/>Wow. That 6% does seem quite high, I agree. Personally I have taken the EIU estimate of 3% as good in my recent post:<BR/><BR/><I>Unless the oil price recovers soon, Russia's current-account surplus will turn into deficit during 2009 (the Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts that it will equal 4% of GDP), meaning that the country would be forced to subsidise vital imports, including food, out of its already strained dollar holdings. Even if an outright default is likely to be avoided, some debt restructuring moves involving the bulk of Russian debt now seem more or less unavoidable. </I><BR/><BR/>But give it time. We haven't seen any data from 2009 yet, and people seem to be making a lot of pretty unrealistic asumptions about growth in China. Anyway thanks for the December data, they really are down very sharply from November. Definitely one to watch.<BR/><BR/>As you can see from this post, the GDP contraction is going more or less according to forecast.Edward Hughhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10384039867580949531noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7303901362201842397.post-29549129384015226682009-02-09T16:23:00.000+01:002009-02-09T16:23:00.000+01:00so much about the forecasts Russia will have a cur...so much about the forecasts Russia will have a current account deficit of 6% in 09<BR/><BR/> Feb 9 (Reuters) - Russia's foreign trade surplus <BR/>fell to $4.6 billion in December, its lowest in over 5 years and <BR/>down sharply from an upwardly revised $8.76 billion in November, <BR/>the central bank said on Monday. <BR/> In 2008 as a whole, Russia's foreign trade surplus rose to <BR/>$179.8 billion from $130.9 billion in 2007. <BR/> The central bank provided the following data: <BR/> RUSSIAN FOREIGN TRADE Dec'08 Nov'08 Dec'07 <BR/> Exports 28.504 30.423 38.587 <BR/> Imports 23.903 21.660 24.808 <BR/> Balance +4.601 +8.763 +13.779 <BR/> NOTE - Figures in billions of dollars, FOB. <BR/> <BR/>oil and commoditiy prices were at their lows and ruble devaluation not really started and still we see a trade strong surplusAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com