tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7303901362201842397.post5195865447643036100..comments2009-12-11T09:53:43.900+01:00Comments on Russia Economy Watch: Russia's Contraction Eases But Knife-edge Risks Remain For 2010Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7303901362201842397.post-52844066832160343782009-07-16T11:57:46.163+02:002009-07-16T11:57:46.163+02:00In fact, looking at this report this morning:
**...In fact, looking at this report this morning:<br /><br /><br />**********************<br /><br />“We can, with caution, talk about some moderation of the pace of contraction,” said Elvira Nabiullina, economy minister. The economy ministry forecasts overall gross domestic product contraction of 8 per cent to 8.5 per cent this year, with growth resuming in 2010 but at only 1 per cent.<br /><br />********************<br /><br />This is not that far from what I am saying in the article. The June PMIs more or less forecast the improvement in June IP. I would only go a bit further and say we may see a 10% contraction this year, but next year is much more open. We may see another contraction, and we may see serious issues in the financial sector. It all depends on what happens to oil prices.Edward Hughhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10384039867580949531noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7303901362201842397.post-3568605527661706032009-07-16T11:11:49.858+02:002009-07-16T11:11:49.858+02:00Hi John,
Yes, the luck of the draw really. This ...Hi John,<br /><br />Yes, the luck of the draw really. This is similar to a pattern we are seeing in other countries. I think we now really need to wait and see what H2 brings, and not just in Russia.Edward Hughhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10384039867580949531noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7303901362201842397.post-5591861028922939262009-07-15T22:03:17.132+02:002009-07-15T22:03:17.132+02:00You just missed June figures on industrial product...You just missed <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=RUIPRNYY:IND" rel="nofollow">June figures on industrial production</a>. It finally seems to be recovering some.Johnnoreply@blogger.com